Space Weather Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (DONKI)
Go to:
|
WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time:
2023-12-15T04:54Z
Model Inputs: 2023-12-13T15:05:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=59.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=616.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2023-12-13T20:58Z 2023-12-14T07:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=83.0, Lat.=-30.0, Speed=684.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2023-12-14T12:25Z 2023-12-14T08:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=50.0, Lat.=-18.0, Speed=517.0, HalfAngle=13.0, Time21.5=2023-12-14T15:03Z 2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=33.0, Lat.=-4.0, Speed=1081.0, HalfAngle=49.0, Time21.5=2023-12-14T20:34Z Model Outputs: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-12-16T18:51Z (+- 7 hours) [PE: -12.7 hr] Duration of disturbance (hr) = 26.2 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.3 Possible Kp index: (kp)90=5 (kp)135=6 (kp)180=7 Other Location(s) Impact: OSIRIS-APEX with estimated shock arrival time 2023-12-15T09:47Z Psyche with estimated shock arrival time 2023-12-17T08:42Z Solar Orbiter with estimated shock arrival time 2023-12-16T23:48Z STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2023-12-16T16:59Z [PE: -7.5 hr] Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif Note : For OSIRIS-APEX with estimated shock arrival time 2023-12-15T09:47Z, we observe in the OSIRIS-APEX timeline that this automatically detected time is the smaller, first of two enhancements, likely from the 2023-12-13T15:05:00-CME-001 event being the first to arrive. The much larger enhancement starting around 2023-12-15T18:00Z is the main impact from the rest of the CMEs in this simulation arriving at OSIRIS-APEX together. Additionally, the influence of the 2023-12-13T15:05:00-CME-001, 2023-12-14T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2023-12-14T08:36:00-CME-001 events is not expected to contribute to the predicted impact for NASA missions near Earth around 2023-12-16T18:51Z. The impact to NASA missions near Earth is expected to be mainly attributed to the 2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001 event. Submitted on 2023-12-15T05:25Z by Tony Iampietro A Notification with ID 20231215-AL-001 was sent on 2023-12-15T05:57Z A Notification with ID 20231216-AL-002 was sent on 2023-12-16T20:52Z |
| Comments by users: |
| 0 comment received. |
The Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and other entities provide data to DONKI as a courtesy to the community.
By visiting this site, you acknowledge that you understand and agree to the Important Disclaimer Notice
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement